Chris Whitty today warned a deadly third wave of coronavirus is inevitable as he defended England’s ultra-cautious roadmap out of lockdown.
The chief medical officer said ‘all the modelling’ suggests cases will spike at some point after restrictions are eased, despite uptake of the vaccines being high.
He claimed it was ‘perfectly realistic’ that tens of thousands more Brits could be killed by the virus, pointing out that flu claims up to 20,000 lives during a bad year.
Professor Whitty insisted slower was safer when it came to easing curbs because it gives more time for the vaccine programme to reach younger Brits, who are more likely to be super-spreaders.
Batting away calls for lockdown to be loosened sooner, Professor Whitty warned: ‘If you open up too fast, a lot more people die – a lot more people die.’
He added: ‘I think it’s very easy to forget quite how quickly things can turn bad if you don’t keep a very very close eye on it.’
Number 10 has promised to follow the data, not dates, but has set strict five-week intervals between each phase of the plan.
Ministers have refused to shorten the time between lifting curbs no matter how promising the data is, but have not ruled out extending the window if the figures begin to trend in the wrong direction.
With almost 24million of the most vulnerable Britons – a third of the entire UK population – now given at least one dose of the vaccine and daily deaths now in double-digits, there is increasing pressure for an earlier unlocking.
Professor Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, are being quizzed by MPs on the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee this morning.
Sir Patrick warned ministers would be ‘flying blind’ if they leave a gap of less than five weeks between each step, claiming going any quicker would not give them enough time to to analyse the data.
Chris Whitty today warned ‘a lot more people will die’ if lockdown is eased too soon as he defended Britain’s ultra-cautious roadmap out of restrictions
Sir Patrick warned politicians will be ‘flying blind’ if they leave a gap of less than five weeks between each step, claiming going any quicker would not give them enough time to to analyse the data
Explaining the rationale behind the five-week intervals, Sir Patrick said: ‘It takes days for people to increase their mixing contacts, it takes days for growth in infections.
‘You then see growth in infections over a couple of weeks. You then have to wait and see what effect it has on hospitals.’
He claimed it took three weeks to build up enough data and another week to properly analyse it.
Ministers are keen to have one week to relay the message to the public and give people enough time to adjust their behaviour, he added.
Modelling by the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) found up to 30,000 more people could die even with a slow lockdown lifting.
The models, which were been widely criticised for being too pessimistic, were put to Professor Whitty this morning.
Defending the research, he said: ‘Because this is such a common virus against large numbers of people, even if relatively small proportion of people are still remaining vulnerable, that still equates to very large number overall.’
He added that because the vaccines are not 100 per cent effective, some of those who have been immunised will still catch, fall ill and die from the disease.
For these reasons, Professor Whitty said another surge of the virus was inevitable at some point either in the summer, autumn or winter.
He added: ‘What we are going to see is as things are opening up, what all the modelling suggests is that at some point we will get a surge in virus.
‘Whether that happens, we hope it doesn’t happen soon, but it might for example later in the summer if we open up gradually, or if there is a seasonal effect, it might happen over the next autumn and winter.
‘But all the modelling suggests there will be a further surge and that will find the people who either have not been vaccinated, or the vaccine has not worked.
‘Some of them will end up in hospital, and sadly some of them will die. And that’s just the reality of where we are with the current vaccination.’
He added: ‘The ratio of cases to deaths will go right down as a result of vaccinations but not right down to zero.’
‘Just as in a typical flu 7-9,000, in a bad year 20,000. These are not ridiculous numbers they are perfectly realistic numbers for a serious respiratory virus even when people have been vaccinated [on the 30,000 extra deaths].
‘If you open up too fast a lot more people die. A lot more people die.’
Millions of primary school children in England went back on Monday as part of the first step in the Government’s lockdown-easing plan.
Step two will see beer gardens, non-essential shops, gyms and hairdressers reopen from April 12, while indoor gatherings, restaurants and pubs will be allowed to resume from May 17 at the earliest.
All major restrictions are due to be lifted from June 21 as part of the final stage in the roadmap.
Professor Whitty suggested the measures pencilled in for May 17 involved ‘significant risks’.
He told MPs he would ‘strongly advise’ against any attempt to ‘concertina’ the five-week interval between steps.
He described May 17 as ‘a very significant block with a lot of stuff that is indoors for the first time, that is the point when we are really going to start to see some very significant risks accumulating, potentially’.
Sir Patrick told the committee: ‘Nobody would say we know exactly how this is going to roll out over the next few months.
‘The important thing is to measure, adapt and take decisions in the light of information as it emerges.’