Coronavirus UK: Is East London approaching herd immunity?

Parts of London could already be developing herd immunity against coronavirus because so many people are thought to have been infected.

Data experts suggest that as many as half of people in some boroughs in the east of the city have been infected already. And given that re-infection with Covid appears to be extremely rare, this could mean that the spread of the virus is getting slower in those areas as fewer become susceptible to catching it and passing it on.

Edge Health estimates that a staggering 54 per cent of the population in Barking and Dagenham have already been infected with coronavirus – more than 100,00 people.Based on death rates in the boroughs, the infection rate could be 49 per cent in Newham, 43 per cent in Redbridge and 42 per cent in Havering, the project found.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose grim forecasts sent Britain into its first lockdown last year, has said past infection rates in London will slow down transmission in future. 

Scientists estimate around 80 per cent of a population, or more, need to be immune for an area to be protected against outbreaks, but lower percentages may still be able to slow the spread of the disease.

Per-person infection rates in the city already appear to be slowing down after out-of-control surges in December, raising questions about whether Tier 4 measures are being helped along by natural resistance. But rates still appear to be rising, suggesting the draconian restrictions enforced on the capital before Christmas have had little effect.

In a paper published about the fast-spreading new variant in December, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine researchers feared lockdown measures wouldn’t work as well against it because it was so infectious. 

Infection rate data shows that cases in boroughs across London are still rising but the increases have slowed down, which may be a mix of developing herd immunity and Tier 4 lockdown rules. In Barking and Dagenham, data analysts estimate over half the population has had coronavirus already

‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson told the Sunday Times: ‘I think we will see growth rates slow… We may see a decline, and that may be slightly aided by the fact that there is quite a lot of herd immunity in places like London.

‘Maybe 25 or 30 per cent of the population has now been infected in the first wave and second wave. So that adds to the reduction of transmission.’

Even lower levels than the herd immunity threshold can slow down transmission of the virus because they increase the likelihood that someone who comes into contact with an infected person is already immune.

If there is 30 per cent immunity, for example, and there’s one infected person in a group of 100, each time that person meets a group of 10, only seven of those people could feasibly catch the virus from them. In the same group at the start of the pandemic, meanwhile, it’s likely all 10 of them would have been at risk.

In areas that have been even more exposed to the virus this effect could be even greater.

Modelling by Edge Health suggests that one in every five people in England has already had coronavirus and developed immunity to getting it again.

Scientists aren’t sure how long natural immunity to the virus will last for but, within the year since the virus first emerged, reinfection has been rare with most proven cases limited to people with immune system problems.

The Government’s Covid-19 dashboard says there has been 2.4million cases of the disease since the outbreak began to sweep the UK in January, or four per cent of the country’s population. And Public Health England estimates through its random blood testing that 6.9 per cent of the population has had the disease – around 3.8million people

WHICH AREAS OF LONDON HAVE HAD HIGHEST EXPOSURE? 

According to research by Edge Health, which used boroughs’ death counts to estimate how many cases they are likely to have had, many parts of London have higher levels of immunity than Public Health England data suggests:

% of population infected so far (official tests)

% of population infected so far (Edge modelling)

Barking & D’ham

Newham

Redbridge

Havering

Tower Hamlets

Hackney

Brent

Waltham Forest

Croydon

Haringey

Merton

Ealing

Hounslow

Lewisham

Harrow

Lambeth

Hillingdon

Barnet

Greenwich

Enfield

Bexley

Sutton

Hammersmith 

Southwark

Wandsworth

Islington

Kingston 

Bromley

Richmond 

Westminster

Kensington 

Camden

7.9%

7.1% 

8.1%

8.1%

6.7%

5.5%

5.5%

6.6%

5.5%

5.6%

5.4%

5.7%

5.8%

5%

5.6%

5.1%

5.7%

5.4%

5.5%

5.7%

6.8%

5.4%

4.8%

5%

4.8%

4.5%

5%

5.5%

3.9% 

3.8% 

4.1%

3.8%        

54.2%

49%

42.9%

42.4%

39.8%

35.1%

34.9%

33.2%

30.1%

29.9%

28.8%

28.4%

28.3%

28.3%

28.1%

27.4%

26.3%

26.2%

26.1%

26.1%

25.7%

25%

24.3%

24%

23.8%

21.8%

21.4%

17.4%

16%

16.5%

15.5%

14.2%

But figures produced by data analysis firm Edge Health suggest that the actual number of infections may be as high as 12.4million, the equivalent of 22 per cent of people.

If true this could mean that, on average, among every five people someone with coronavirus comes into contact with, one of them would be resistant to catching the virus.

Infection rates are much higher than average in parts of East London, which appears to be the worst-affected area of the country.

While Department of Health testing has detected that 8.1 per cent of the population in Havering has been infected – 21,189 officially diagnosed cases out of 257,000 – Edge’s analysis estimates it is 42 per cent.

Edge calculated its ‘true’ infection rate by working backwards from the death counts for local areas around the country. It used this to calculate how many people must have had the virus to cause that many deaths using fatality rates of between 0.00045 and 13 per cent, depending on age.

The model estimated that 54.2 per cent of the population in Barking & Dagenham had caught the virus since the pandemic began in Barking, 49 per cent in Newham, 45.4 per cent in Thurrock and 42.9 per cent in Redbridge.

The data shows a huge disparity between test data collected by Public Health England, which swabs only people with coronavirus symptoms, and the true number of people who have been infected whether tested or not.  

In Barking, Edge estimates 115,460 people have previously had Covid, compared to just 14,665 confirmed PHE cases. 

There was a similar theme in Newham, where there were an estimated 173,058 infections to PHE’s 21,683, and in Redbridge it was 130,806 compared to 22,125.

Immunity is also developed through vaccines, which are now being given out rapidly to elderly people across the country and will reduce the numbers of people who are likely to get seriously ill with Covid-19.

Herd immunity, either through vaccinations or natural infection or a combination of the two, is now considered the only way to stamp out Covid-19, although even that type of protection won’t be perfect.

Professor Ferguson added: ‘If you get infected once, then at least for a year or more you will have quite a lot of protection against disease, a bit like a vaccine. 

‘You’re not necessarily protected against being infected again or transmitting, you’re just not very likely to get very sick. There are all of these caveats around immunity. It’s true of the vaccine as well as natural infection.’

Infection rates for recent weeks show the spread of the virus has slowed down in London, although it isn’t possible to disentangle the effects of immunity with Tier 4 restrictions.

The numbers of positive tests per 100,000 people doubled in most boroughs of the city in the week before Christmas – rising by 119 per cent in Redbridge and 108 per cent in Barking – but the week-on-week rise slowed after the festive period.

In the following week the increases in rates in the five main boroughs of East London – the two named above and Havering, Newham and Tower Hamlets – fell to between 40 and 75 per cent from doubling. 

And they have since fallen further, to between 15 and 25 per cent per week.

The decreases come, however, while the city is in a Tier 4 lockdown, which started on December 19 and then morphed into a national shutdown on January 4. 

These measures are expected to have brought infection rates down or at least slowed the increase of cases, even though scientists warned last year that the new variant of the virus, now the dominant version in London and the South East, may be too infectious for lockdown rules to work.

In a paper published in December they warned that the UK was now in a race to get herd immunity by vaccine, or be forced to develop it naturally, which would mean dozens of thousands more people dying.

Professor John Edmunds, Professor Sebastian Funk and Professor Rosalind Eggo, who are all members of the SAGE advisory group SPI-M-O, contributed to the study.

‘The increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with Covid-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020,’ they wrote, ‘even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before December 19 are maintained.

‘Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction rate [R number] to less than one, unless primary schools, secondary schools and universities are closed.’

They continued: ‘We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

‘It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.’

Nationally, Edge Health’s analysis suggested that one in five people may have already had Covid, which would be around five times higher than the number of people who have tested positive. 

The model used to arrive at the figure compares Covid-19 deaths in each area of England against an estimated infection fatality rate (IFR) – the proportion of people who catch the virus who die – and the age breakdown of each borough.

Experts worked backwards from the death count for local areas around the country, calculating how many people must have had the virus to cause that many deaths using fatality rates of between 0.00045 and 13 per cent, depending on age.

It revealed that estimated cases are more than five times the official count in 77 places in England, just over half the 149 local authorities analysed.

In some parts of London and Essex — which were the initial hotspots in spring and are now struggling again with the highly infectious new strain — the true infection toll could be eight times higher than the official count, with up to one in two people estimated to have contracted the virus. 

In Manchester and Liverpool, which became the epicentres during autumn as the epidemic shifted north, the actual case number is thought to be six times higher than the Government’s count, with four in 10 having had Covid.  

George Batchelor, co-founder and director of Edge Health, said it was ‘incredible’ how out of whack the official testing regime was with the country’s epidemic, saying it was only painting ‘a fraction of the picture of total infections’.

It’s widely accepted that the actual number of Britons who’ve had the disease is far higher than the official toll because of asymptomatic cases and a lack of testing or people not coming forward for tests. This was particularly true at the start of the pandemic when Britain’s lacklustre testing scheme meant swabs were reserved for the sickest Covid patients in hospital. 

ONE IN FIVE IN ENGLAND MAY HAVE HAD VIRUS ALREADY 

One in five people in England may have already had Covid, according to modelling which estimates the true number of infections is five times higher than the official toll.

The Government’s Covid-19 dashboard says there has been 2.4million cases of the disease since the outbreak began to sweep the UK in January, or four per cent of the country’s population. And Public Health England estimates through its random blood testing that 6.9 per cent of the population has had the disease – around 3.8million people.

But figures produced by data analysis firm Edge Health suggest that the actual number of infections may be as high as 12.4million, the equivalent of 22 per cent of people. 

This could mean that Britain is closer to some degree of herd immunity than previously thought. Scientists believe that once a significant proportion of the population has been infected with Covid already, the virus won’t be able to spread as fast because most of them won’t get re-infected. But this isn’t expected to last forever. 

The Government's Covid-19 dashboard says there has been 2.4million cases of the disease since the outbreak swept the UK in February, or four per cent of the country's population. But analysis by Edge Health suggests that the actual number of infections could be as high as 12.4million, the equivalent of 22 per cent of people

The Government’s Covid-19 dashboard says there has been 2.4million cases of the disease since the outbreak swept the UK in February, or four per cent of the country’s population. But analysis by Edge Health suggests that the actual number of infections could be as high as 12.4million, the equivalent of 22 per cent of people

The model used to arrive at the figure compares Covid-19 deaths in each area of England against an estimated infection fatality rate (IFR) – the proportion of people who catch the virus who die – and the age breakdown of each borough.

Experts worked backwards from the death count for local areas around the country, calculating how many people must have had the virus to cause that many deaths using fatality rates of between 0.00045 and 13 per cent, depending on age.

It revealed that estimated cases are more than five times the official count in 77 places in England, just over half the 149 local authorities analysed. 

George Batchelor, co-founder and director of Edge Health, said it was ‘incredible’ how out of whack the official testing regime was with the country’s epidemic, saying it was only painting ‘a fraction of the picture of total infections’.

It’s widely accepted that the actual number of Britons who’ve had the disease is far higher than the official toll because of asymptomatic cases and a lack of testing or people not coming forward for tests. This was particularly true at the start of the pandemic when Britain’s lacklustre testing scheme meant swabs were reserved for the sickest Covid patients in hospital.

HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE REALLY HAD COVID IN YOUR AREA?
Local authority % population estimated infected Estimated cases Confirmed cases (PHE)
Barking and Dagenham 54.20% 115,460 14,665
Newham 49.00% 173,058 21,683
Thurrock 45.40% 79,223 12,007
Redbridge 42.90% 130,806 22,125
Havering 42.40% 110,063 19,316
Tower Hamlets 39.80% 129,314 19,387
Liverpool 38.80% 193,428 30,672
Manchester 38.60% 213,389 37,471
Rochdale 38.00% 84,493 15,409
Salford 37.80% 97,742 16,117
Oldham 37.60% 89,129 17,385
Tameside 36.50% 82,572 12,438
Blackburn with Darwen 36.00% 53,925 12,475
Sandwell 35.20% 115,735 18,752
Hackney and City of London 35.10% 101,995 14,108
Brent 34.90% 115,101 15,744
Nottingham 33.70% 112,247 21,021
Wigan 33.30% 109,489 20,441
Birmingham 33.20% 378,806 60,046
Waltham Forest 33.20% 91,847 16,164
Stoke-on-Trent 32.80% 84,114 13,594
Kingston upon Hull, City of 32.70% 84,885 13,577
Bury 32.60% 62,311 12,286
Medway 32.20% 89,815 19,063
Slough 32.00% 47,803 8,501
Leicester 31.90% 113,164 23,517
Barnsley 31.40% 77,599 12,957
Luton 31.40% 66,946 11,346
Doncaster 31.40% 97,827 15,664
Rotherham 30.80% 81,667 14,209
Sunderland 30.60% 85,069 14,641
Bradford 30.50% 164,446 34,511
Walsall 30.20% 86,316 14,379
Croydon 30.10% 116,257 18,388
Haringey 29.90% 80,282 13,076
Southend-on-Sea 29.40% 53,842 9,659
Reading 29.30% 47,482 5,974
South Tyneside 29.00% 43,805 8,207
Derby 28.90% 74,468 11,632
Merton 28.80% 59,510 9,995
Bedford 28.70% 49,818 7,631
Bolton 28.70% 82,649 17,909
Ealing 28.40% 97,129 17,087
Hounslow 28.30% 76,796 13,701
Lewisham 28.30% 86,459 13,104
Harrow 28.10% 70,521 12,461
Wolverhampton 27.60% 72,674 14,136
Lambeth 27.40% 89,184 14,552
Knowsley 27.30% 41,214 10,115
Leeds 27.20% 215,749 43,454
Stockton-on-Tees 27.10% 53,457 10,207
Blackpool 27.00% 37,686 6,573
Middlesbrough 27.00% 38,033 7,636
County Durham 26.90% 142,369 26,227
Hartlepool 26.60% 24,883 5,984
Warrington 26.30% 55,294 11,550
Milton Keynes 26.30% 70,884 12,163
Hillingdon 26.30% 80,698 15,273
Barnet 26.20% 103,847 18,752
Greenwich 26.10% 75,289 13,427
Enfield 26.10% 87,062 19,504
Bexley 25.70% 63,719 15,059
Wakefield 25.60% 89,208 16,985
Sheffield 25.30% 147,939 30,848
Sutton 25.00% 51,601 9,847
Trafford 24.80% 58,791 11,290
Darlington 24.80% 26,446 4,760
Gateshead 24.60% 49,619 9,990
Hammersmith and Fulham 24.30% 45,075 8,005
Newcastle upon Tyne 24.20% 73,269 18,203
Southwark 24.00% 76,670 13,716
Kirklees 23.90% 104,995 23,476
Wandsworth 23.80% 78,317 14,008
Lancashire 23.80% 289,723 64,245
Staffordshire 23.10% 202,870 38,051
Kent 23.00% 364,427 79,903
Sefton 23.00% 63,568 14,018
Wirral 22.50% 72,839 14,364
Northamptonshire 22.10% 166,641 25,970
Solihull 22.10% 47,834 8,827
Halton 21.90% 28,375 6,875
Islington 21.80% 52,907 9,644
Cheshire West and Chester 21.70% 74,613 13,665
Essex 21.60% 321,858 72,513
Stockport 21.60% 63,236 13,561
Kingston upon Thames 21.40% 38,052 8,050
St. Helens 21.20% 38,251 9,826
Wokingham 21.00% 35,961 5,155
Dudley 20.60% 66,239 15,865
Central Bedfordshire 20.60% 59,422 9,402
Hertfordshire 20.10% 238,870 46,668
Derbyshire 19.90% 159,935 29,981
Coventry 19.90% 73,802 13,562
Cheshire East 19.60% 75,417 13,604
Nottinghamshire 19.60% 162,482 33,527
Redcar and Cleveland 19.20% 26,265 5,864
North East Lincolnshire 18.80% 29,964 6,256
Cumbria 18.60% 93,237 16,412
Peterborough 18.50% 37,378 8,155
North Tyneside 17.90% 37,221 8,603
Lincolnshire 17.80% 135,665 27,109
Bromley 17.40% 57,938 16,379
Warwickshire 17.20% 99,552 19,417
Surrey 17.20% 205,177 43,581
North Lincolnshire 17.10% 29,496 6,421
Bristol, City of 16.90% 78,424 20,274
Richmond upon Thames 16.90% 33,466 7,123
Portsmouth 16.80% 36,209 8,412
Windsor and Maidenhead 16.80% 25,425 5,341
Leicestershire 16.60% 117,469 28,219
Northumberland 16.60% 53,417 12,108
Westminster 16.50% 43,090 8,807
East Riding of Yorkshire 16.30% 55,759 12,779
Brighton and Hove 16.10% 46,829 8,462
Gloucestershire 15.70% 99,881 14,410
Kensington and Chelsea 15.50% 24,224 5,632
Calderdale 15.40% 32,585 10,186
Buckinghamshire 14.90% 80,890 18,581
Bracknell Forest 14.90% 18,203 4,332
Southampton 14.80% 37,360 7,685
York 14.60% 30,787 8,101
Swindon 14.50% 32,264 6,966
Worcestershire 14.40% 85,506 17,629
East Sussex 14.30% 79,531 17,892
Camden 14.20% 38,244 8,970
North Yorkshire 13.70% 84,458 19,359
Suffolk 13.60% 103,854 16,373
West Berkshire 13.40% 21,262 3,804
South Gloucestershire 13.00% 37,056 9,458
Telford and Wrekin 12.80% 23,010 6,055
Oxfordshire 12.30% 85,410 20,640
Hampshire 12.20% 169,120 35,806
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 11.70% 46,358 12,276
Shropshire 11.70% 37,653 8,248
West Sussex 11.50% 99,337 22,086
Wiltshire 11.40% 57,040 9,037
North Somerset 11.30% 24,300 6,371
Cambridgeshire 10.10% 65,992 14,886
Norfolk 9.80% 88,646 22,066
Herefordshire, County of 9.50% 18,407 3,987
Isle of Wight 9.40% 13,332 2,851
Rutland 8.90% 3,550 812
Bath and North East Somerset 8.90% 17,154 5,260
Somerset 8.30% 46,768 11,148
Plymouth 7.60% 19,973 5,745
Torbay 7.50% 10,257 2,436
Devon 5.90% 47,548 13,268
Dorset 5.80% 21,856 5,737
Cornwall 4.80% 27,617 7,325