The likelihood of life evolving on Earth was just three-to-one

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Against all odds: The likelihood of life evolving on Earth was just three-to-one, mathematical analysis reveals

  • A mathematical study from Columbia University includes all existing research
  • Dr David Kipping found the chance of life evolving was slimmer than 3/1 
  • Evolution of intelligent life was even more unlikely, his research reveals  

By Joe Pinkstone For Mailonline

Published: | Updated:

Life on Earth literally overcame the odds to evolve, a new study has found. 

A mathematical study from Columbia University analysed all the existing research to determine how likely it was that life would blossom on Earth. 

Dr David Kipping found the chance of life coming to exist on our planet was longer than three-to-one, and even slimmer for intelligent life. 

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A mathematical study from Columbia University analysed all the existing research to determine how likely it was that life would blossom on Earth (stock)

Dr Kipping created complex mathematical models which incorporated the known timeline of life on Earth during the planet’s formative years. 

His research, published today in PNAS, suggests if Earth’s history were to be repeated, intelligent life forms like humans could not be guaranteed to re-occur.      

Writing in the study, Dr Kipping says: ‘If we reran Earth’s clock, one should statistically favour life to frequently reemerge, but intelligence may not be as inevitable.’

The statistical experiment found that the very first primitive lifeforms were statistically most likely to evolve 190 million years after habitable conditions existed, a point believed to be around 4.2billion years ago.

This took place at the very end of Earth’s most primitive stage known as the Hadean Eon, which spanned from Earth’s very inception 4.6billion years ago to around four billion years ago. 

Earth was a tumultuous place during this timeframe, with the surface regularly bombarded with asteroids while the atmosphere was thick and toxic.

Dr David Kipping found the chance of life coming to exist on our planet was longer than 3/1, and even slimmer for intelligent life. Some of the first life on Earth would have been archaea and algae, similar to what is still seen today (pictured, a pool teeming with algae and archaea)

Dr David Kipping found the chance of life coming to exist on our planet was longer than 3/1, and even slimmer for intelligent life. Some of the first life on Earth would have been archaea and algae, similar to what is still seen today (pictured, a pool teeming with algae and archaea)

WHAT WAS EARTH’S ‘HADEAN’ EON?

The Hadean Eon is a period in Earth’s geologic timeline often described as ‘hellish.’

It began about 4.6 billion years ago, accounting for Earth’s initial formation up to about 4.0 billion years ago.

During this time, the planet was subjected to frequent impacts with extraterrestrial objects, leaving its crust unstable during the early years.

Molten rock was thrust to the surface by convection currents, which also gave way to ‘magmatic seas.’

Eventually, the core and crust stabilized, and the atmosphere and oceans began to develop, with evidence suggesting this occurred around 4.4 billion years ago.

Despite life being able to evolve quite early on, it took billions of years before intelligent, multi-cellular lifeforms evolved. 

This crucial jump was found to be far less likely, according to the latest research. 

‘The possibility that intelligence is extremely rare and Earth “lucked out” remains quite viable,’ the study states. 

‘Overall, we find a weak preference, 3:2 betting odds, that intelligence rarely emerges given our late arrival.’

Dr Kipping warns that his research is specific to Earth and therefore cannot be applied to the hunt for alien life on other planets. 

He writes: ‘It is tempting to apply these numbers to potentially habitable exoplanets being discovered. 

‘However, we caution that our analysis purely concerns the Earth, treating abiogenesis as a stochastic process against a backdrop of events and conditions which might be plausibly unique to Earth.’