Coronavirus could have infected HALF of the British population and been spreading here since January say Oxford University experts as they challenge ‘unquestioning acceptance’ of official data
- Half of the UK could be infected with coronavirus, say Oxford experts
- Public in Kent, Cambridge and Oxford could be tested to support new theory
- Disease may have spread unrecognised throughout the country since January
- Questions raised over whether the UK could already have herd immunity
- Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
The coronavirus may have infected as much as half of the population of the United Kingdom, according to researchers at the University of Oxford.
Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, led a study into the infection rate of Covid-19 across the country.
Professor Gupta said the UK need to begin large scale antibody testing, in an interview with the Financial Times.
London was viewed as Britain’s epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic. Experts suggest around half of the country’s population could already be infected with Covid-19
Today the UK’s coronavirus death toll rose to 422. while there have been 8,077 British cases reported.
Modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group suggests Covid-19 first reached the UK by mid-January, spreading invisibly before the first cases were recorded at the end of February.
The research, which formed its basis by studying case numbers and deaths in the UK and Italy, still needs to be fully proven, but if true, it presents a different view to the modelling from Imperial College London, which has had some influence on government policy.
Prof Gupta told the FT: ‘I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model.’
The Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the public as soon as this week.
Results from those tests will be able to provide further evidence to contribute to Oxford’s theory.
The FT reports that, if proven, the University of Oxford’s findings may mean current restrictions could be lifted sooner than previously indicated.
Britain was put into lockdown on Monday, but research from the University of Oxford suggests measures may not need to be in place for as long as ministers originally predicted
Oxford’s results would suggest the country has already acquired substantial herd immunity while the pandemic spread unrecognised between January and February.
Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.