Britain today recorded another 492 Covid-19 victims in the highest daily death toll since May — but infections are no longer spiralling.
Department of Health figures show the number of laboratory-confirmed victims today is the most since 500 were announced on May 19. More than 1,000 infected Brits were succumbing to the disease each day during the peak of the first wave in the spring.
But infections have risen just 1.9 per cent in a week, with government officials today declaring another 25,177 new positive tests. Government advisers say the true number of daily cases occurring during the worst parts of March and April was around 100,000 — but Number 10’s lacklustre testing system meant millions went undetected.
Some top scientists believe the flare-up of Covid-19, which kicked off when schools and universities reopened in September, has already died down. One expert yesterday argued cases were ‘flatlining’.
Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King’s College London, today sparked hope by claiming data from his team’s symptom-tracking study shows the country has ‘passed the peak of the second wave’.
Dr Yvonne Doyle, Public Health England’s medical director, said: ‘Sadly we know that the trend in deaths will continue to rise over the next few weeks. As the new measures come into place it will take some time for the impact to be seen.
‘We have all made sacrifices and they have helped to save many lives. Let’s stick with it to keep our loved ones safe. The fewer people you see, the more you’ll help stop the spread.’
King’s College London’s Professor Tim Spector shared projections that suggest new daily cases are now falling after peaking in October
There is a time lag between a spike in Covid-19 cases and then hospitalisations and deaths due to the fact it can take several days for someone to get seriously unwell with the disease, and even weeks for death.
It may explain why cases have appeared to have flattened in the past few days while deaths soar to record levels since the spring.
The seven-day rolling average of new cases is 22,398 – only 1.9 per cent higher than last Wednesday. For the past two days it has dropped, suggesting the spread of the virus is slowing ahead of the second national lockdown.
On the other hand, deaths – of which today there were 492 across all settings including care homes and hospitals – are continuing to rise.
An average of 295 people are dying per day, which is 58.7 per cent higher than last Wednesday. At the height of the pandemic, more than 1,000 people were dying per day.
Data from the Office for National statistics yesterday revealed Covid-19 fatalities, as recorded on a death certificate, had risen for the seventh week in a row after dropping below 100 for a brief period in the summer.
To curb a surge of Covid-19 hospital admissions ministers were told would overwhelm the NHS, from Thursday, pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops will again be forced to close their doors.
MPs have backed the new four-week coronavirus lockdown for England in the Commons today with a Government majority of 478, after Boris Johnson warned of an ‘existential threat’ to the NHS without action to curb the spread of the disease.
With Labour supporting the new lockdown restrictions – which were also expected to be approved by the House of Lords later on Wednesday – the Government’s majority was never in doubt.
However Mr Johnson faced an angry backlash from some Tory MPs – led by former prime minister Theresa May – alarmed at the economic impact of the controls as well as the curtailment of civil liberties.
In the Commons, the Prime Minister sought to reassure MPs that the measures – which are due to expire on December 2 – should enable shops and businesses to reopen in time for the run-up to Christmas, after speculation they could be extended if the crisis is not controlled.
The PM acknowledged however that opening the country back up would depend on getting the R number – the reproduction rate of the virus – back down below 1.
He has this week insisted cases were now surging so high there was ‘no alternative’ to the month-long blanket restrictions across England, announced on Saturday night, and warned that otherwise the death toll could be double that in the previous peak.
The government’s scientific advisers urged Mr Johnson to act quickly to avoid second wave of coronavirus that has a lower daily death toll but which lasts for a longer period of time – making it more deadly overall.
But Mr Johnson has faced the wrath of Conservative MPs enraged by the ‘evil’ new rules that will cripple the economy. They have been branded ‘unimaginable’ and compared to the actions of a ‘totalitarian regime’.
The move came as the NHS in England was set to move into its highest alert level – level 4 – from midnight amid a continuing rise in coronavirus patients needing hospital care.
NHS England chief executive Sir Simon Stevens said the service already had ’22 hospitals’ worth’ of Covid-19 patients and now faced a ‘serious situation ahead’.