The coronavirus pandemic could kill off large long-haul planes as the airline industry continues to be crippled by the worldwide lockdown, an expert warned today.
Airlines are expected to switch to flying fewer, smaller aircraft – with the infection said to have accelerated the demise of the world’s largest passenger aircraft.
These are the relatively new Airbus A380 and the Boeing 747-400, the original jumbo jet – with Lufthansa already scrapping half of its versions of both models.
Aviation consultant Andrew Charlton told the Guardian: ‘You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.’
The German carrier expects it will take several months for travel restrictions to be completely lifted and years until the global demand returns to pre-crisis levels.
The coronavirus pandemic could kill off large long-haul planes as the industry continues to be crippled by the worldwide lockdown, key figures have said. Pictured: A Lufthansa A380 plane sitting on the tarmac in March (Stock photo)
Both the A380 and 737 were among the first to be grounded this year as demand fell, with business class seats left empty as firms turned to video-conferencing tools.
Airlines have grounded their planes and furloughed thousands of workers as countries close their borders and resorts shut down for an indefinite period.
Many are predicting short-haul carriers could soon offer rock-bottom prices to start generating revenues and force down competitors’ prices across the industry.
EasyJet has said it expects to leave middle seats on planes empty as a short-term measure to enforce social distancing and gives customers more confidence.
Its chief executive Johan Lundgren said: ‘We will clearly look to have the middle seat empty as we start. I think that is actually what the customers would like to see.’
British airline easyJet has said it expects to leave middle seats on planes empty as a short-term measure to enforce social distancing and gives customers more confidence (stock photo)
But he said travel restrictions are likely to ease slowly and easyJet must be flexible, adding: ‘I don’t think this is going to be a case of let’s just open everything up.’
The head of Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost airline, has brushed off forecasts of a sluggish recovery, saying he expected a swift traffic rebound fuelled by ‘massive price-dumping’ in a race to win back passengers.
Low cost airlines have been criticised for their ‘tin-eared response’ to the crisis by offering vouchers rather than refunds to customers on cancelled flights, in a desperate attempt to save cash.
Mr Charlton said: ‘Yes, passengers will travel by banking their vouchers … But people being burnt by that now aren’t going to book ahead in future – it’s collapsing confidence in booking.’
Larger airlines have also announced measures to build confidence in customers fearful of infection from cramped cabin space, with Emirates trialling a rapid blood test, where the results are available in 10 minutes, on all passengers on one flight from Dubai to Tunisia this week.
German carrier Lufthansa recently announced it would be permanently scrapping half its modern A380s, and retiring a similar number of its 747s early (stock photo)
Global traffic is now down 80 per cent year-on-year, quashing recent forecasts that the number of airline passengers would double within 20 years.
The International Air Transport Association has said passenger revenues will plunge by about £250billion or 55 per cent in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the Canada-based organisation, added: ‘We are not expecting to restart the same industry that we closed a few weeks ago.’
In late March, the IATA, which represents 290 carriers, forecast that half of the world’s airlines would run out of cash within two to three months.
It urged governments to support airlines either by nationalising them or injecting fresh capital, waiving or delaying charges including taxes, or providing loan guarantees.
EasyJet said it could survive a nine-month shutdown thanks to its measures to contend with the coronavirus crisis and is planning for a slow recovery.
The company will start to shrink its fleet and the number of planes it operates will not reach pre-crisis levels until 2022, signalling that it does not expect a quick recovery for the industry.
‘We’ve been able to adapt ourselves to reduced demand for the next couple of years, then have the flexibility to increase as demand picks up again,’ said Mr Lundgren.