Ministers today vowed to push ahead with reopening schools despite warnings they will have to close pubs or impose other curbs to keep coronavirus under control.
Neil Ferguson – known as ‘Professor Lockdown’ for his role in modelling the impact of the disease – said the ‘R’ rate could rise by as much as half when all pupils come back next month.
He insisted that secondary schools in particular will contribute to infections, and unless the government drops its vow for a full return it will need to ‘row back’ on easing of wider restrictions.
The comments fuel fears about the desperate efforts to get the economy up and running to save millions of jobs, with signs that Covid cases are are already increasing and requiring a series of local lockdowns.
But schools minister Nick Gibb underlined the government’s determination to get all children back in class for the new term, while Labour backed making education of the young generation an ‘absolute priority’.
Asked if pubs and other leisure activities could be sacrificed so schools can return, he said: ‘Our priority is to make sure that children are back in school with their friends.’
Mr Gibb also rejected calls from unions for teachers to be allowed to wear face masks.
The developments came after a major study predicted a second peak of the disease unless the contact tracing system gets better – and said it could be twice as bad as in the Spring.
Neil Ferguson – known as ‘Professor Lockdown’ for his role in modelling the impact of the disease – said the ‘R’ rate could rise by as much as half when pupils come back
Professor Ferguson raised the possibility of social venues such as pubs being closed again to offset the impact of schools reopening next month
Keir Starmer ramped up pressure on Boris Johnson today warning he has just a month to solve the problems of the UK will face a ‘long bleak winter’
But Prof Ferguson – who resigned from the Government’s advisory group Sage after breaking lockdown rules – said there was a ‘limit’ to what contact tracing could achieve.
He stressed that restricting social contacts between people was the main way to control the spread of the virus, and ministers needed to ‘plan for all contingencies’ when it came to the reopening of schools.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘I think it is important to say that not all schools are the same.
‘We have a lot of evidence now that primary schools, young children, pose very little risk of transmission.
‘I think the concern is with secondary schools, teenagers, further education colleges and universities where the evidence is still not certain, but it looks like older teenagers can transmit just as well as adults.
‘The risk then is that big schools, comprehensives, universities, FE colleges, link lots of households together, reconnect the social network which social distancing measures have deliberately disconnected. And that poses a real risk of amplification of transmission, of case numbers going up quite sharply.’
He added: ‘In terms of the reproduction value, the ‘R’ value, opening high schools could increase it by as much as a half, but by as little as 0.2 or 0.3, but it will go up.
‘Given we’re at ‘R’ equal to one at the moment, clearly we don’t want ‘R’ going up to 1.5 or so, that would … lead to quite rapid growth of the epidemic.’
Prof Ferguson said trade-offs will have to be made to keep the virus under control.
He said: ‘Whether, in high schools, FE colleges, it is necessary for children to go back 100 per cent or whether we can have other alternative means of provision, children being in one week and out the other week, therefore reducing contacts in school and outside school, or whether we row back on the relaxation of restrictions in the rest of society to allow schools to be fully opened, for instance social venues, leisure venues, more working from home…
‘I mean that really is a policy decision, but I’m just saying, in my view, it is likely that some form of those measures will be necessary to maintain control of transmission.’
Prof Ferguson said there was ‘absolutely’ a need for ministers to spell out the ‘Plan B’ on how they will react if cases increase.
On whether the virus can be controlled in winter, he added: ‘Things could get quite difficult. I mean, I’m reasonably confident that as long as there is the political will in place to maintain control of transmission that we can do it, we’ve have good enough surveillance now to know what is going on.’
In a round of interviews this morning, Mr Gibb said: ‘We’re very clear that all children will be returning to school in September, including in areas of local lockdown such as Greater Manchester.
‘It is hugely important for children’s education, for their wellbeing, that they do return to school and schools are working enormously hard in preparation for September to make sure that the risk of transmitting the virus within the school environment is kept to an absolute minimum.
‘We have issued very detailed guidance to schools about hygiene, about keeping children in these bubbles – class-sized bubbles in primary schools, year-group bubbles in secondary schools – making sure children aren’t unnecessarily mixing with other children in the school, staggered lunch breaks, staggered play times, doing everything that we can to minimise contact – one-way systems through schools and so on – so that children are safe in school.’
Asked whether the Government would consider closing pubs and restaurants to ensure all children can return to school safely in September, Mr Gibb replied: ‘Our priority is to make sure that children are back in school with their friends.’
But Mr Gibb warned that central government cannot decree that schools must be prioritised over pubs and that the matter will depend on local cases and health experts.
Asked whether, if infection rates rise, schools should be the last to close with other sectors shut down first, Mr Gibb told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘What I’m saying is that all children will be returning to school in September, including in those areas that are currently subject to a local lockdown – Manchester, Greater Manchester, Leicester and so on – because it is important that children are back in school.
‘But you can’t decree this for every single case and it will depend on the circumstances of a local increase in the infection rate, and that is why it is being led by the director of public health in localities.
‘But we want all children back in school.’
Ministers have insisted that the reopening of schools next month will go ahead, amid fears that a generation of children are being damaged