Can the Tories take London from Labour? Shaun Bailey’s campaign believes he could beat Sadiq Khan as they are ‘closer than expected’ in early voting
- Sadiq Khan and Shaun Bailey have been battling for the London mayoral post
- Labour incumbent has been way ahead in polls although they have narrowed
- Final results not expected to be declared until tomorrow or possibly Sunday
Tory hopes of an astonishing victory in the London mayoral election rose today with Shaun Bailey keeping track of Sadiq Khan in early vote counting.
Mr Bailey, who polled a distant second to the Labour incumbent before Thursday’s election, was just 2 per cent behind this evening, with the two on 39 and 37 per cent respectively.
The final results are not due to drop until Saturday night at the earliest, meaning it could be an anxious weekend for Labour.
Sources in the Bailey camp suggest their hopes are rising off the back of the early results, with the two front-runners close in areas Mr Khan won by miles in 2016.
But it is thought Conservative strongholds are counting faster, and Labour will take some comfort from the fact that due to the voting system used, Mr Khan could lose the first round vote and still win in the second round.
Allies of Mr Khan have been warning that they expect a much tighter result than looked likely until the past week.
The dire performance of Labour nationally and in the Hartlepool by-election has also set nerves jangling.
One senior source told MailOnline that the result could be narrower than in 2016 against Zac Goldsmith. ‘I think it will be closer than last time,’ they said.
Sadiq Khan (LEFT) and Tory challenger Shaun Bailey (right) were virtually neck and neck after nearly a quarter of votes were counted – although it is thought Conservative strongholds are counting faster
The counting of votes is being tracked live on the official London elections site
A YouGov poll yesterday gave Mr Khan a 12-point lead, based on first preference votes, down from 21 points a month ago.
It suggested Mr Khan will win the contest in a second round run-off with Mr Bailey by 59 per cent to 41 per cent.
Knife crime in the capital has increased by more than 60 per cent between May 2016, when Mr Khan took office, and March last year, according to the Office for National Statistics.
There have been Labour worries that Mr Khan support could be cut following a spate of knife killings.
An Opinium survey this week showed 52 per cent of Londoners think tackling knife crime should be the next mayor’s top priority.
Mr Khan, along with wife Saadiya and their dog Luna, voted at St Albans Church in south London, yesterday before a frantic effort to get out the vote.
Mr Bailey cast his ballot with wife Ellie at Drapers’ Pyrgo Priory School in Romford.
Counting has been continuing at Alexandra Palace in London this afternoon