Only 33,000 people in England have Covid-19: Official testing data shows ‘clear downward trend’ in nation’s epidemic as estimated number of cases drops 100,000 in a fortnight
- The percentage of sample testing positive dropped from 0.1% to 0.06% in a week
- Office for National Statistics says 4,500 people per day are catching the virus
- Only 11 people tested positive out of a sample of 19,933, data shows
- Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
Only 33,000 people in England currently have the coronavirus, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics.
The data, based on testing of almost 20,000 people in the community, shows the number of people with the virus outside of hospitals and care homes is tumbling.
When the same estimates were published on May 28, just a fortnight ago, they suggested 133,000 people were carrying the virus, many without knowing it.
But England’s outbreak is continuing on a ‘clear downward trend’, statisticians say, with around 31,600 new infections each week – around 4,500 per day.
This shows that, as the R value remains below one – the latest estimate is between 0.7 and 0.9 – fewer and fewer people are contracting the deadly virus.
The ONS data says just 0.06 per cent of the population is infected.
Statisticians wrote in their report this morning that a complex investigation of the data ‘confirms there is a clear downward trend’ but warned about interpreting raw figures.
The range of possible current cases is somewhere between 14,000 and 68,000, the statisticians said, while somewhere between 22,700 and 43,5000 new cases were appearing each week.
They added: ‘As the proportion of those testing positive in England is decreasing over time, it is likely that the incidence rate is also decreasing.
‘However, because of the low number of new positive cases, we cannot currently measure a statistically significant reduction.’
ONS estimates were based on just 11 positive tests from a sample of 19,933 people tested across 9,179 households.
Although the small numbers mean one error in either direction could significantly change the estimate, it suggests a tiny proportion of the population has Covid-19.
The statistics announced today show a marked drop on those released in the two weeks since the data first became available.
When the information was first published on May 21, 0.25 per cent of the population was thought to be infected with the virus.
This has since dropped to 0.1 per cent last week, June 4, and to 0.06 per cent today, June 12.
The estimated number of members of the public carrying the virus at any one time has tumbled over the same time period, from a predicted 137,000 in May to just 33,000 today. Today’s figure was accurate at June 7, but is the most recent data.
Data covers two-weekly periods so some overlap – for example the data published today contains one of the same weeks (the week ending May 31) as the data published last Friday.
