A top coronavirus model is predicting that 100,000 Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of the summer – as the US death toll surpasses President Donald Trump’s best case scenario of 60,000 deaths.
The MOBS model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University also estimates that there will be about 89,000 deaths by mid-May if stay-at-home orders remain in place.
That death toll would increase to over one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to the projections that are among those used by the CDC to forecast the pandemic.
As of Wednesday, the US death toll is now at 61,000 and there are more than one million infections across the country.
Trump, in recent weeks, had suggested that 60,000 might be the total death count from COVID-19. He had cited the estimate as a sign of relative success after the White House previously warned the US could suffer 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
The MOBS model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University estimates that 100,000 Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of the summer. It also estimates that there will be about 89,000 deaths by mid-May (above) if stay-at-home orders remain in place
That death toll would increase to over one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to the projections that are among those used by the CDC to forecast the pandemic
Pictured above is a comparison of projected average infections by May 1 in scenarios where social distancing is adhered to and where it is not
Another 2,389 Americans died from coronavirus on Wednesday after a brief lull in new fatalities.
Daily deaths had been on the decline in recent days, dropping below 2,000 on Saturday and continuing to fall on Sunday and Monday.
New deaths recorded fell to 1,315 on Monday, the first time daily fatalities in the US had been this low since April 5, before climbing again this week.
New cases also spiked on Wednesday with 28,259 new infections, bringing the total to 1,065,245 cases.
Dr Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, on March 29 revealed models projecting the deaths of 100,00-240,000 Americans, assuming social distancing efforts were ongoing.
At the same time, she said epidemiology models initially had predicted a worst-case scenario of 1.5 million to 2.2 million US deaths without mitigation efforts such as social distancing, hand washing and staying home as much as possible.
Soon after, Trump began speculating that the 100,000 figure was an outer limit. Later, he leaned more toward the 60,000 projection.
‘The minimum number was 100,000 lives and I think we’ll be substantially under that number,’ he said April 10. ‘Hard to believe that if you had 60,000 – you could never be happy, but that’s a lot fewer than we were originally told and thinking.’
Trump has used the 2.2. million death estimate repeatedly to suggest he saved millions of lives through leadership that he and other administration officials say was ‘decisive’. Trump often cites restricting travel from China, where the virus originated, and from Europe, where it took hold before exploding in the US, as among his most important first steps.
‘We did the right thing, because if we didn’t do it, you would have had a million people, a million and a half people, maybe 2 million people dead,’ the president said on April 20.
‘Now, we’re going toward 50-, I’m hearing, or 60,000 people. One is too many. I always say it. One is too many. But we’re going toward 50- or 60,000 people.’
The latest increase in the death toll came after the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model, often cited by White House officials, raised its COVID-19 death toll projections this week.
The model now projects 74,073 Americans will die from the coronavirus by August 4, which is up from nearly 67,000 a week ago and 60,000 predicted two weeks ago. That figure is down from about a month ago when the model projected around 90,000 deaths related to coronavirus in the US.
A COVID-19 Simulator tool developed by Massachusetts General Hospital and Georgia Tech University predicts that current restrictions being implemented in various states could see the US death toll reach about 86,000 fatalities by August 30.
These models all predict that reopening states too soon and relaxing social distancing measures will result in even more deaths.
These forecasts cited by the CDC track the number of COVID-19 death since February and show the estimated deaths across the US in the next four four weeks. All of the models assume that existing social distancing measures will continue, while the Columbia University (CU) models makes various assumptions on the effectiveness of current social distancing interventions
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model projects 74,073 Americans will die from the coronavirus by August 4
This COVID-19 simulator tool developed by Massachusetts General Hospital and Georgia Tech University predicts that current restrictions being implemented in various states could see the US death toll reach about 86,000 fatalities by August 30
Alessandro Vespignani, the director of the institute responsible for the MOBS model, told Yahoo News’ Skullduggery podcast that his estimates were higher than official estimates because it accounts for transmissions in January and February.
The first US death was recorded on February 29 but recent testing in California indicates the first death might have been on February 6, with the virus circulating weeks earlier than previously thought.
He predicted that without social distancing measures put in place across the US, the number of fatalities would have already reached half a million.
‘Any surveillance system for diseases only captures the tip of the iceberg,’ he said.
The rising death toll means coronavirus could soon be deadlier than any flu season since 1967.
America’s worst flu season in recent years was in 2017-2018 when more than 61,000 people died, according to the CDC. The only deadlier flu seasons were in 1967 when about 100,000 Americans died, 1957 when 116,000 died and the Spanish flu of 1918 when 675,000 died.
In early March, the prospect that the coronavirus would kill more Americans than the flu was unthinkable to many politicians who played down the risk of the new virus.
Trump tweeted on March 9: ‘So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!’