No new cases of the South African Covid variant have been spotted in Britain over the past fortnight, in a glimmer of hope that the highly-contagious mutation has not yet taken root in the country.
Two infections with the mutant form of Covid had been identified on British soil by December 23, Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced before Christmas. Experts warned the two cases were probably ‘just tip of the iceberg’.
But since then no new cases of the variant — called 501.V2 — have been declared by officials. Scientists tracking the constantly-evolving virus admit the strain is ‘difficult to track’, however.
Experts raised concerns over the South African variant because they feared it could be even more infectious than the mutated UK strain currently ripping through the country — called B.1.1.7.
A World Health Organization vaccination boss warned today there was a ‘theoretical concern’ it could get around antibodies triggered by the jabs. But scientists have yet to prove the current crop of vaccines don’t protect against the variant.
Results from rigorous testing are expected within weeks, with some experts saying the mutations are unlikely to have any noticeable impact on vaccines.
But even if they do, scientists say the formula can be tweaked in a matter of days to shield people from mutant strains.
There is no proof that either the South African or UK strains of coronavirus are any more deadly or cause more severe symptoms than previous strains.
The mutations of the coronavirus have triggered changes to the spike protein on its outside (shown in red), which is what the virus uses to attach to the human body. (Original illustration of the virus by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Hospitalisations in the UK have escalated after the discovery of a new variant – which ministers say is 56 per cent more infectious
Public Health England told MailOnline only two confirmed cases of the South African variant have been spotted in the UK since the pandemic began.
But health bosses said they hoped that there would be an update on just how prevalent the variant has become later this week.
The strain can only be identified through sequencing the genomes of samples — which would then reveal whether it had the tell-tale mutations.
Only a fraction of positive tests are sent on to COG-UK for further investigation, meaning the South African variant could still be spreading.
The consortium — consisting of the NHS, public health agencies and 13 universities — is considered to be the best genomic sequencing programme in the world.
Standard PCR tests that diagnose Britons with Covid cannot spot the South African strain because it looks too similar to the original variants.
But the Kent mutation is much easier to track because it can be spotted through the standard swabs due to its genetic make-up, experts say.
Professor Lawrence Young, a molecular oncologist at Warwick Medical School, told MailOnline there was ‘no question’ that COG-UK would be checking for the South African variant over Christmas.
He added: ‘But they’re only sampling a very small number of swabs meaning the variant [may be missed].’
Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, told The Sun: ‘On that standard PCR, you will not be able to distinguish between the South Africa strain, and the strains that have been doing the rounds for months already.
‘That’s why its more difficult to track.’
He added: ‘They would only pick it [the South Africa variant] up if someone goes for the normal testing procedure because they have symptoms, and they hit that one in ten chance of their strain being sent for sequencing. That is the only way the authorities would know about it.
‘That’s a slower way, and less refined way, of doing things because there would be a time lag.
‘If you have an outbreak of the South Africa strain, you have to wait till you’ve got the sequence data.’
COG-UK checks around 10 per cent of all positive swabs taken in the UK for mutant strains of the virus, a figure that is far higher than other countries.
One case of the South African variant had been identified in London and one in the North West by December 23.
Announcing the find last month, Mr Hancock said: ‘As part of our surveillance and thanks to the impressive genomic capability of the South Africans we’ve detected two cases of another new variant of coronavirus here in the UK.
‘Both are contacts of cases who have travelled from South Africa over the past few weeks.’
The cases had no link between them and they are thought to have been infected by separate travellers, suggesting there are many more cases of the variant already in Britain.
On December 14 Matt Hancock revealed that a UK variant of the coronavirus – which was first detected in Kent – had spread to more than 60 local authorities.
There are also fears the variants may be able to evade the vaccines and trigger a serious infection, with scientists saying they are more worried about the South African strain.
But Professor Ian Jones, a virologist at the University of Reading, told MailOnline today it was ‘almost certain’ the vaccine would still protect against both strains ‘at some level’.
‘The vaccines all produced multiple antibodies that block the virus-receptor interaction and while the changes in the variants might dodge a few of these they are unlikely to dodge all of them,’ he said.
‘So it is almost certain the vaccine will still be effective at some level.
‘And as long as severe Covid is prevented even a partially effective vaccine would be useful.
‘If a change in the vaccine was required the genetic alteration required could be done in a few days but of course the scale up to millions of doses would take time.’
South African medics are pictured above in Johannesburg yesterday. Only two cases of the mutant strain have been identified in the UK
Helen Reiss, chair of the WHO’s immunisation committee for the Africa region, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme there was a risk a variant could evade the vaccines.
‘Many of the vaccines that are in the most advanced stages of development have targeted this spike protein,’ she said.
‘The spike protein is what allows the virus to attach to cells and infect cells. So many of the vaccines have targeted that.
‘And what we’re seeing in the South African variant is that there are changes and mutations around the spike protein so there is, indeed, a theoretical concern that vaccines might be less effective.
‘The good news is that we are able to study that because all of the vaccine studies have got stored blood samples from participants, and in a few weeks, we’ll be able to say: “Do all of these different vaccines appear to work as well against the original lineage that we looked at versus this new variant?”.’
The blood samples will contain antibodies triggered by the vaccine, which can be tested on the new variants to see if they bind to its spike protein – stopping infection.
She also called on the world to start focusing on rolling out the vaccine in Africa, to ensure that no region is left behind.
‘At the moment, if you look at the maps of who has got the vaccine, unfortunately for the African region, there’s very little access,’ she said.
‘But we’re hoping that in the first quarter of this year we’ll start to see that access become a reality. It’ll be small quantities of vaccines at first and pretty certainly all of that will go to protecting healthcare workers.’
It comes after vaccine manufacturers said yesterday they were already looking at ways to tweak their jabs to make them more effective.
German firm BioNTech, which helped deliver Pfizer’s vaccine approved in the UK last month, said it could use existing technology to produce a new vaccine against mutations of coronavirus in six weeks.
The team’s vaccine uses brand-new mRNA technology, which BioNTech’s chief executive says can be engineered much more easily than traditional vaccines.
Professor Sarah Gilbert, who heads up the Oxford/AstraZeneca shot, added her team was also looking at how it could change its vaccine to battle new strains.